What To Know About Secretive Election For Next Pope /By Conor Murray, Forbes Daily
The papal conclave begins at the Vatican Wednesday, May 7, 2025, the secretive process by which cardinals seclude themselves for what could be several days as they elect a new leader for the Catholic Church, weeks after the death of Pope Francis.
On Wednesday afternoon 133 cardinal electors will gather in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel and cast their first ballots in the papal election, a process that will continue until one candidate receives a two-thirds majority of the vote.
It’s unclear how long the conclave will take until a new pope is elected, though most recent conclaves have lasted two or three days.
A large majority of the cardinals participating in the conclave were appointed by Francis, in what is set to be the most globally diverse conclave ever, though papal experts say that does not mean Francis’s successor will be ideologically aligned with him, as some of his appointees hail from areas where the church is more conservative.
While participating in the conclave, cardinals will be secluded from the outside world: They were required to turn in their phones ahead of the conclave, and the Vatican has disabled phone service.
Who Are The Leading Contenders To Be Elected Pope?
There’s no clear frontrunner to win the papacy, Vatican experts say, though some of the cardinals considered to be prime candidates include Italy’s Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state who is considered more moderate than Francis, and the Philippines’s Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, who has drawn comparisons to Francis for his liberal-leaning stances and his championing of the poor.
Parolin and Tagle are the two leading contenders on various betting sites, including Polymarket and Kalshi, as bettors wage millions on the papal election. Other cardinals considered possible candidates include several from Italy, Pierbattista Pizzaballa and Matteo Zuppi, as well as Congo’s Fridolin Ambongo, Hungary’s Peter Erdo, Ghana’s Peter Turkson and France’s Jean-Marc Aveline.
How Does The Conclave Work—and How Long Will It Take?
While secluded from the outside world, cardinals under the age of 80 will cast four votes each day until one candidate receives a two-thirds majority. The process begins Wednesday afternoon with mass at St. Peter’s Basilica, after which cardinals proceed to the Sistine Chapel to begin the conclave. Should no successor be chosen on a given day, cardinals spend the night in Vatican guesthouses to resume voting the next day. Each cardinal is assigned a desk affixed with papers that say, “Eligo in summum pontificem,” or, “I choose as supreme pontiff.”
How Do They Announce When A Pope Has Been Chosen?
After voting, the ballots are burned, and chemicals are added to produce either black smoke—indiciating no pope has been elected—or white smoke—meaning a pope has been chosen—from the Sistine Chapel. Vatican watchers gather to watch what color the smoke is after every vote.
